Konferensartikel

A Monte Carlo simulation is useful to determine the probability of completing a project within budget and on time at various stages of the project. This paper discusses a research study to determine and compare the distribution for total project duration using ten different probability distributions for fourteen activities of a project. Triangular distributions were used as reference and parameter values for each activity duration were assumed. Parameter values of nine other distributions were calculated from the mean and standard deviations for the triangular distribution. The study indicated that P90 and P95 values of the output distributions, using different input distributions, differed by up to 4,8%. It was also found that there is a positive correlation between the mean skewness of the fourteen activities and the P90 and P95 values. The skewness of the output distribution showed a strong positive correlation with the mean skewness of the input distributions.

risk, simulation, duration, projects