Konferensartikel

In this study; we perform an integrated analysis to calculate the potential increases in forest biomass production and substitution as an effect of climate change and intensive management. We use the BIOMASS model to simulate change in Net Primary Production due to climate change. Then we estimate the development of forest biomass growth and harvest by using the HUGIN model; the change in soil carbon stock by the use of the Q-model; and the biomass substitution benefits by the use of an energy and material substitution model. Our results show that an average regional temperature rise of 4 °C could increase annual whole tree forest biomass production by 32% and harvest by 29% over the next 100 years. Intensive forest management including climate effect could increase whole tree biomass production by 58% and harvest by 47%. A total net reduction in carbon emissions of up to 89 Tg C and 182 Tg C over 100 years is possible due to climate change effect only and due to climate change plus intensive forestry; respectively. The carbon stock in standing biomass; forest soils and wood products all increase; but the carbon stock changes are less significant than the substitution benefits.

Forest biomass; Carbon; Bioenergy; Construction material; Intensive forestry